SRG · Física
Marea meteorológica
Niveles de retorno de marea de tormenta con el modelo hidrodinámico GTSM (COAST-RP) sobre un compuesto de elevación de suelo desnudo (GEDTM30 v1.2 + DeltaDTM v1.1 sobre Copernicus); ciclones tropicales del catálogo sintético STORM de 10,000 años, extratropicales de ERA5, deduplicados a nivel de evento contra IBTrACS · v1.0 · 2026-09
Costa del Golfo de EE. UU. — la costa de calibración del Katrina de 2005
Cribado de marea meteorológica costera a partir de una resolución hidrodinámica, de modo que la dirección del viento, el fetch, la geometría de la cuenca y la interacción marea-marejada están dentro de los números en lugar de aproximarse. Solo agua en calma — sin sobreelevación ni remonte del oleaje — sobre una climatología congelada de 1980-2017 sin aumento del nivel del mar, y las defensas costeras no están modeladas, por lo que el terreno por debajo del nivel de referencia se representa como no defendido. Cribado para el triaje de carteras, no para el diseño de ingeniería.
Qué incluye
Surfaces — P(inundación) en horizontes de 50 / 250 / 500 años (500 años por defecto), con un corte en cinco clases, incertidumbre y cobertura. Returns — profundidad de inundación en agua calma en metros para rp50/100/250/500, sobre la misma malla de períodos de retorno que Huracán, de modo que viento y marejada se combinan período a período.
Cada versión: puntuación de 0 a 1 · banda de 5 clases · incertidumbre por píxel · máscara de cobertura de entradas · elemento STAC · documento de metodología.
Entradas
Niveles de retorno de marea de tormenta COAST-RP (Dullaart 2021), elevación de suelo desnudo DeltaDTM v1.1 (Pronk 2024, a partir de Copernicus WorldDEM-30), catálogo sintético de ciclones STORM, ERA5, IBTrACS
Historial de versiones
Qué cambió entre versiones: las mismas notas que se publican con los datos. De más reciente a más antigua.
Surfaces
v1.0
2026-09
Cut to 1.0 at this rebuild, not by relabelling v0.1. 1.0 means built on the current bare-earth elevation stack (GEDTM30 v1.2 + DeltaDTM v1.1 over Copernicus) with the region-scoped spike gate in the audit — not "the same data with a larger number". The rebuild is the reason the version moved.
- Coastal-fringe elevations corrected. The blend that joins land to sea floor was smearing bathymetry onto the first three pixels of land wherever the sea bed falls away steeply, inventing ground below sea level and therefore inventing depth on top of it. On the Puerto Rico coast the 500-year depth maximum fell from 10.3 m to 3.6 m against a regional 99th percentile of 0.75 m that did not move — the surrounding surface was always right; a handful of cells were not.
- Bare-earth terrain inland. GEDTM30 v1.2 now sits under the coastal DeltaDTM overlay, so inland coastal ground is no longer a surface model in which buildings and canopy read as terrain.
- Corrected terrain registration. The shared 90 m terrain features were displaced one pixel north-west relative to their own source; that is fixed, so terrain now aligns with land cover, buildings and soils.
- Per-cell elevation provenance ships beside each tile, recording which elevation model supplied every pixel.
- New audit gates: region-scoped spike detection with healthy controls, and a refusal to mosaic a partial product.
v0.1
2026-08
- Both storm populations, counted once. Tropical surge from the STORM 10,000-year synthetic cyclone catalog and extratropical surge (North Sea, nor'easters, Baltic, Mediterranean) from ERA5 — de-duplicated at the event level, so hybrid storms like Sandy are counted exactly once.
- Hydrodynamic source physics. Built on the GTSM global tide-and-surge solve (COAST-RP): wind direction — including negative surge on offshore-wind coasts — fetch, basin geometry and tide–surge interaction are inside the numbers, not approximated.
- Petrel coastal amplification. A tropical-branch enclosure amplification calibrated on Typhoon Haiyan (Tacloban) and Hurricane Katrina (Mississippi coast) closes the sub-grid gap where compact intense storms meet semi-enclosed shallow bays.
- Consistent with Petrel hurricane wind. Same underlying cyclone catalog — wind and surge losses can be combined without event-set mismatch.
- Surfaces: 50/250/500-yr inundation probability, 500-yr depth, 5-class exposure banding, uncertainty, coverage.
- Documented exclusions: wave setup, sea-level rise, flood defences (below-datum land reads as undefended), extratropical-transition surge.
Returns
v1.0
2026-09
Cut to 1.0 at this rebuild, not by relabelling v0.1. 1.0 means built on the current bare-earth elevation stack (GEDTM30 v1.2 + DeltaDTM v1.1 over Copernicus) with the region-scoped spike gate in the audit — not "the same data with a larger number". The rebuild is the reason the version moved.
- Coastal-fringe elevations corrected. The blend that joins land to sea floor was smearing bathymetry onto the first three pixels of land wherever the sea bed falls away steeply, inventing ground below sea level and therefore inventing depth on top of it. On the Puerto Rico coast the 500-year depth maximum fell from 10.3 m to 3.6 m against a regional 99th percentile of 0.75 m that did not move — the surrounding surface was always right; a handful of cells were not.
- Bare-earth terrain inland. GEDTM30 v1.2 now sits under the coastal DeltaDTM overlay, so inland coastal ground is no longer a surface model in which buildings and canopy read as terrain.
- Corrected terrain registration. The shared 90 m terrain features were displaced one pixel north-west relative to their own source; that is fixed, so terrain now aligns with land cover, buildings and soils.
- Per-cell elevation provenance ships beside each tile, recording which elevation model supplied every pixel.
- New audit gates: region-scoped spike detection with healthy controls, and a refusal to mosaic a partial product.
v0.1
2026-08
- Depth, not just probability. On low-lying deltas the probability of flooding within 500 years is effectively 1.0 everywhere — true, but it cannot tell a 2 m pixel from an 8 m one. This line carries the physical depth that drives damage.
- Consistent with Petrel hurricane wind. Both products are driven by the same STORM synthetic cyclone catalog, so wind and surge combine return-for-return without event-set mismatch.
- Both storm populations, counted once. Tropical surge from synthetic cyclones and extratropical surge (North Sea, nor'easters, Baltic, Mediterranean) from reanalysis, de-duplicated at the event level.
- Hydrodynamic source physics. Wind direction — including negative surge on offshore-wind coasts — fetch, basin geometry and tide–surge interaction come from a global tide-and-surge solve, not a parametric approximation.
- Elevation-bounded domain. The scored band follows terrain and hydrology rather than a fixed distance from shore, so it extends far up flat deltas and stops quickly on steep coasts.
- Documented exclusions: wave setup, sea-level rise, flood defences (below-datum land reads as undefended), compound rainfall/fluvial flooding, extratropical-transition surge.
Otros peligros
DeslizamientosAvalanchasIncendios forestalesTerremotosVendavalesCalor extremoFrío extremoHeladasRayosErosión del sueloHuracanesSequíaErupciones volcánicasTsunamiGranizo