VLC · Física
Erupciones volcánicas
Huellas físicas de peligro por volcán (lahar / lava / PDC / tefra / colapso) × tasas eruptivas de magnitud-frecuencia corregidas por completitud · v1.0 · 2026-08
Nápoles — Vesubio y Campi Flegrei: collage de exposición por fenómeno
Exposición volcánica a largo plazo: huellas físicas de peligro por volcán combinadas con tasas eruptivas de magnitud-frecuencia para obtener probabilidades de excedencia a 50 años. Una climatología de cribado, no un pronóstico de erupciones.
Qué incluye
Surfaces — P(≥1 fenómeno eruptivo alcanza el píxel en 50 años) en horizontes de 50 / 250 / 500 años, más un desglose por fenómeno en cinco vías (lahar, lava, PDC, tefra, colapso). Una probabilidad de excedencia real, no una puntuación ajustada.
Cada versión: puntuación de 0 a 1 · banda de 5 clases · incertidumbre por píxel · máscara de cobertura de entradas · elemento STAC · documento de metodología.
Entradas
Petrel Volcano Catalog (1,608 volcanes, VEI + tasas eruptivas), DEM de Copernicus a 90 m, vientos de ERA5 (dispersión de tefra)
Historial de versiones
Qué cambió entre versiones: las mismas notas que se publican con los datos. De más reciente a más antigua.
v1.0
2026-08
Initial public release. (v0.1–v0.3 were internal development vintages; the v0.1 proximity-zone prototype was never released.)
- Physics footprints per phenomenon. Every one of the 1,608 volcanoes in the commercially-clean Petrel Volcano Catalog gets five physically modelled hazard footprints: lahar (LAHARZ volume-scaled inundation on strictly- downstream drainage tracing — hazard follows real valleys, geofenced to each volcano's own drainages), lava (stochastic steepest-descent ensemble, DOWNFLOW-style, morphology-aware flow lengths), pyroclastic density currents (Monte-Carlo energy cone with volume-scaled mobility), tephra/ashfall (advection-diffusion over 30 years of sampled real ERA5 wind profiles, with eruption-size-scaled reach out to the true distal ashfall distance — validated against the 2014 Kelud eruption's westward ash), and sector collapse (catastrophic edifice failure as an independent structural process — the Mount Rainier / Osceola mechanism — so collapse-driven lahar corridors are scored even where eruptions are rare).
- Real probabilities, not scores. Susceptibility is the probability that at least one eruption phenomenon reaches the pixel within 50 years, combining completeness-corrected eruption rates with a magnitude-frequency law. Naples emerges "Moderate" from the data with no tuning.
- Multiple horizons. Alongside the 50-year aggregate, 250-year and 500-year exceedance surfaces ship as first-class layers — rare, high-consequence mechanisms (sector collapse, long-recurrence volcanoes) surface at the horizons where they matter.
- Long-recurrence volcanoes are scored. Volcanoes whose major eruptions predate the historical record (e.g. Mount Rainier) no longer sit at a conservative prior floor: per-band completeness windows (large eruptions are recorded far deeper in time) and the USGS NVEWS / IAVCEI Decade threat lists set defensible minimum rates. Orting, WA — on Rainier's mapped lahar path — is a shipped audit gate.
- Per-phenomenon layers. Five additional COGs (lahar/lava/PDC/tephra/ collapse exceedance) ship alongside the aggregate, so "lahar risk here?" is a first-class query.
- Commercially clean. NOAA NCEI + NASA (public domain), Copernicus DEM + ERA5 (permissive), GSHHG-f. No GVP data.
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