VLC · Physics
Volcanic Eruption
Per-volcano physical hazard footprints (lahar / lava / PDC / tephra / collapse) × completeness-corrected magnitude-frequency eruption rates · v1.0 · 2026-08
Naples — Vesuvius & Campi Flegrei: per-phenomenon exposure collage
Long-horizon volcanic exposure: per-volcano physical hazard footprints combined with magnitude-frequency eruption rates into 50-year exceedance probabilities. A screening climatology, not an eruption forecast.
What ships
Surfaces — P(≥1 eruption phenomenon reaches the pixel within 50 years) at 50 / 250 / 500-year horizons, plus a five-way per-phenomenon breakdown (lahar, lava, PDC, tephra, collapse). A real exceedance probability, not a tuned score.
Every release: 0–1 score · 5-class band · per-pixel uncertainty · input-coverage mask · STAC item · methodology doc.
Inputs
Petrel Volcano Catalog (1,608 volcanoes, VEI + eruption rates), Copernicus 90 m DEM, ERA5 winds (tephra dispersal)
Version history
What changed between releases — the same notes that ship with the data. Newest first.
v1.0
2026-08
Initial public release. (v0.1–v0.3 were internal development vintages; the v0.1 proximity-zone prototype was never released.)
- Physics footprints per phenomenon. Every one of the 1,608 volcanoes in the commercially-clean Petrel Volcano Catalog gets five physically modelled hazard footprints: lahar (LAHARZ volume-scaled inundation on strictly- downstream drainage tracing — hazard follows real valleys, geofenced to each volcano's own drainages), lava (stochastic steepest-descent ensemble, DOWNFLOW-style, morphology-aware flow lengths), pyroclastic density currents (Monte-Carlo energy cone with volume-scaled mobility), tephra/ashfall (advection-diffusion over 30 years of sampled real ERA5 wind profiles, with eruption-size-scaled reach out to the true distal ashfall distance — validated against the 2014 Kelud eruption's westward ash), and sector collapse (catastrophic edifice failure as an independent structural process — the Mount Rainier / Osceola mechanism — so collapse-driven lahar corridors are scored even where eruptions are rare).
- Real probabilities, not scores. Susceptibility is the probability that at least one eruption phenomenon reaches the pixel within 50 years, combining completeness-corrected eruption rates with a magnitude-frequency law. Naples emerges "Moderate" from the data with no tuning.
- Multiple horizons. Alongside the 50-year aggregate, 250-year and 500-year exceedance surfaces ship as first-class layers — rare, high-consequence mechanisms (sector collapse, long-recurrence volcanoes) surface at the horizons where they matter.
- Long-recurrence volcanoes are scored. Volcanoes whose major eruptions predate the historical record (e.g. Mount Rainier) no longer sit at a conservative prior floor: per-band completeness windows (large eruptions are recorded far deeper in time) and the USGS NVEWS / IAVCEI Decade threat lists set defensible minimum rates. Orting, WA — on Rainier's mapped lahar path — is a shipped audit gate.
- Per-phenomenon layers. Five additional COGs (lahar/lava/PDC/tephra/ collapse exceedance) ship alongside the aggregate, so "lahar risk here?" is a first-class query.
- Commercially clean. NOAA NCEI + NASA (public domain), Copernicus DEM + ERA5 (permissive), GSHHG-f. No GVP data.
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